:Product: 0913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 13 2235 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the period. Two C1 X-ray
flares were observed at 13/0419Z and 13/1801Z from Region 1296
(N23E59) and Region 1283 (N14, L=227) which rotated off the NW limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class flares for the period (14- 16
September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated
minor to major levels  between 13/0300 - 0900Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the period (14 - 16
September).
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Sep 129
Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep  130/130/125
90 Day Mean        13 Sep 100
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  017/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep  013/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  008/012-006/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01