:Product: 0914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. Seven C-class flares were
observed during the period. The largest was a C9/1f flare observed
at 14/2051Z from Region 1297 (S16W52). A full halo CME was observed
from SOHO NASA LASCO C2 images at 14/0000Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 428 km/s. The source of the CME was an
eruption in the vicinity of Region 1289 (N24W25).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class flares for the period (15-17
September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the period (15-17
September). The CME is expected to be geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 143
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 101
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01