:Product: 0918RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1295 (N22W12) produced a
long duration C3 flare at 18/1057Z. A back-sided CME was observed on
LASCO C3 imagery at 18/1242Z. Region 1295 was classified as a beta
gamma magnetic configuration again today. Regions 1300 (N24W45) and
1301 (N21E77) were numbered during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class flares from Region 1295 for the
next three days (19-21 September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (19-21 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Sep 150
Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep  150/150/150
90 Day Mean        18 Sep 103
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  014/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01