:Product: 0919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1296 (N26W05) produced a
long duration C6 flare at 19/0737Z. Region 1301 (N20E63) produced a
C6/Sn flare at 19/1541Z. SOHO LASCO imagery observed 4 CME limb
events in the past 24 hours, none of which are expected to be
geoeffective. Region 1295 remains a beta gamma magnetic
configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (20-22 September). A chance for isolated
M-class flares exists from Region 1295.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (20-22 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 141
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 103
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    09/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01