:Product: 0921RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M1 flare was observed
at 21/1223Z from Region 1301 (N20E41). Regions 1295 (N22W47) and
1301 showed increases in area and produced occasional C-class flares
during the period. Three CMEs were observed towards the NE quadrant,
none of which are expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class flares from Regions 1295 and 1301
during the period (22-24 September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels at mid-latitudes, with
isolated unsettled to active levels at high-latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels during the period
(22-24 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Sep 144
Predicted   22 Sep-24 Sep  144/144/140
90 Day Mean        21 Sep 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01