:Product: 1004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1302 (N13W85) produced the largest event of the
period, a long duration C7/Sf x-ray flare at 04/0923Z. Two new
regions were numbered today, Region 1311 (S12E20) in the southeast
quadrant, and Region 1312 (N22E74) in the northeast quadrant.
Finally, a full halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery 04/1248Z.
After careful analysis, this event was determined to be a farsided,
non-Earth directed event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next
three days (05-07 October). These slightly elevated flare
probabilities are due to there being over 8 active sunspot regions
on the disk. Even though Region 1302 will be rotating off the
visible disk in one day, Region 1311 and 1310 (S32E02) have shown
some rapid development.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with isolated minor storm levels possible on
days one and two (05-06 October), as three Earthbound CMEs are
forecasted to arrive. A return to quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 October) is expected, as the effects of the CMEs wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 130
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct  125/120/120
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  015/015-018/018-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/15
Minor storm           20/25/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/20
Minor storm           30/35/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01