:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A new spot group emerged and
was numbered Region 1320 (S22W39). There are currently ten numbered
regions, several producing C-class events.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event over the next 3 days (14-16
October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (14 October). Conditions are
forecast to increase to quiet to unsettled conditions with the
chance for active periods on days 2 and 3 (15-16 October) from
anticipated CH HSS effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 138
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 116
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  005/005-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/40/40
Minor storm           01/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05