:Product: 1014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Despite 9 regions on the disk,
only low level C-class flares have occurred.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (15-17 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm
possible on day 1 (15 October) and mostly unsettled with
intermittent active periods on days 2-3 (16-17 October). The
activity is forecast as effects from an anticipated CH HSS.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 136
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  012/010-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/40/30
Minor storm           40/30/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/50/40
Minor storm           50/40/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01