:Product: 1018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A single low-level C-class
x-ray flare occurred. No significant changes were observed in Region
1319 (N11W39), which remained an Eki/beta-gamma. Region 1321
(S14E09), a Cao/beta, showed gradual spot growth during the period.
Region 1324 (N10E63) rotated more fully into view as a 12-spot
Eai/beta group. No new regions were numbered. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (19 - 21 October) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Regions 1319 or 1324.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet through the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 147
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01