:Product: 1019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1324 (N12E55) produced three C-class events, the largest a C5 at
19/0455Z. The region has grown significantly in area and is
considered an Fkc-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. New Region 1325 (N16E82) was numbered today and is an
Hax-alpha region.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (20-22 October) with a chance for M-class
activity from Regions 1319 (N10W53) and 1324.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (20-22 October).
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 147
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct  145/150/150
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01