:Product: 1026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Oct 26 2205 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels due to a single C1
x-ray event at 26/1001Z from Region 1324 (N12W38).  Associated with
this event was a partial-halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2
imagery lifting off the NW limb at 26/1000Z.  GOES-15 SXI imagery
first observed material movement from Region 1324 in a W-NW
direction at about 26/0800Z.  Limited imagery prevented a thorough
analysis of the CMEs potential geoeffectiveness. The region
exhibited significant decay in area and spot count and was
classified as a beta magnetic configuration.  Regions 1325 (N17W12)
and 1327 (S20W67) also indicated decay in both area coverage and
spot count.  The remaining regions were unchanged.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days (27 - 29
October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. Solar wind speeds
decayed through the period from near 550 km/s to about 400 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (27 October).  Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on days two and three (28 - 29 October) as a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective
position.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Oct 132
Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        26 Oct 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  027/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  005/005-007/007-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01