:Product: 1029RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Oct 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were five, low level C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a C3 at 1452Z from Region 1324 (N12W85). Two of the C-flares appeared to originate from a region on the east limb at about 10 degrees North. Region 1330 (N07W22) continues to be the largest group on the disk at this time but was quiet and stable. A slow CME was observed off the northeast limb late in the period but STEREO observations indicated that this was a back-sided event. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods for the next two days (30-31 October). The increase is expected due to a high speed stream from a coronal hole. Quiet levels are expected to prevail on the third day (01 November). III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Oct 123 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 124 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 010/010-010/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/10 Minor storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/20 Minor storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 15/15/05