:Product: 1101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Newly numbered Region 1338
(S12E69) produced the largest flare of the period; a C5 flare at
31/2322Z.  Another new region, responsible for M-class flare
activity on 31 October, is currently rotating into view on the
Northeast limb and was numbered Region 1339 (N22E71).  A CME was
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 31/1700Z with the majority of
the ejecta off the Northeast limb.  The CME was associated with a
disappearing solar filament (DSF) that was observed in SDO/AIA 193
imagery at 31/1426Z.  STEREO B COR 2 imagery had a plane of sky
speed of approximately 503 km/s.  A glancing blow from this CME is
possible early on 04 November.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Further M-class flares are likely from new Region
1339.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with
major and severe storm periods observed at high latitudes.  At
approximately 01/0817Z, a shock arrival was observed at the ACE
spacecraft.  Solar wind speed increased from approximately 370 km/s
to 420 km/s while the total magnetic field (IMF Bt) increased from 5
to 15 nT.  A sudden impulse (SI) of 18 nT was observed on the
Boulder magnetometer at 01/0907Z.  This event was possibly due to
transient activity associated with a DSF on 28 October.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on day 1 (02 November) due to continued activity from
transient activity on 01 November.  Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on days 2 - 3 (03 - 04 November).
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 139
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov  145/145/150
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  015/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01