:Product: 1111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1344 (S18W45) was the
most active sunspot group with occasional C-class flares, including
a long-duration C4/Sf at 11/0705Z associated with a partial-halo
CME. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 825 km/s, based
on SOHO/LASCO C2 images, and appeared to have a slight Earthward
component. Region 1344 showed gradual intermediate and trailer spot
development during the period. Region 1339 (N17W48) produced a
single C-class flare during the period and appeared to be in a state
of slow decay with gradual loss of intermediate spots and penumbra.
Region 1339 was classified as an Ekc and retained its beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. No new regions were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (12 - 14 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1339.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (12
November) due to a CME arrival associated with a halo-CME observed
on 09 November. Field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled
to active levels on day 2 (13 November) as CME effects gradually
subside. A further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected
on day 3 (14 November) with weak effects possible from the
partial-halo CME observed today.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    40/40/30
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 174
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  170/170/165
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 133
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  020/020-015/015-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01