:Product: 1112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Regions 1339 (N18W62) and 1344
(S19W59) each produced occasional low-level C-class flares. Region
1339 continued to gradually decay and was classified as a Dac-type
with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1344 continued to
show gradual intermediate spot development. It was classified as a
Dai-type with a beta magnetic configuration. No significant changes
were noted in the remaining regions. New Region 1346 (S17E64), an
Hsx-type, was numbered early in the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (13 - 15 November). There will be a chance for an
isolated M-class flare until Regions 1339 and 1344 depart the west
limb on 14 November.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A weak interplanetary shock was
detected at the ACE spacecraft at 12/0518Z, followed by a sudden
geomagnetic impulse at Earth at 12/0611Z (8 nT, Boulder USGS
magnetometer). Modest increases in wind speed and IMF Bt were
observed following the shock arrival, which likely indicated the
arrival of the halo-CME observed on 09 November.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (13 -
14 November), followed by a decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (15
November).
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    40/20/10
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 169
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov  165/160/155
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 134
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  007/008-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/01
Minor storm           02/02/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                14/14/13
Minor storm           12/12/08
Major-severe storm    08/08/02