:Product: 1115RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Nov 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate due to two M-class flares observed during the period. Region 1348 (N20W84) produced an M1/Sf at 15/0912Z, while Region 1346 (S18E27) produced an M1/Sf at 15/1243Z. A 13 degree long filament, centered near S24W37, was first observed lifting off in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at about 14/1940Z. At 14/2036Z, LASCO C2 imagery observed a SW directed CME with a plane-of-sky speed estimated at about 630 km/s. Initial analysis indicates a potential Earth-directed component from this CME. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class activity through the period (16 - 18 November). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (16 - 17 November). By day three (18 November), the field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, in response to a possible glancing blow from the CME observed late on 14 November. III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov Class M 55/55/55 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Nov 148 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 150/145/150 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 004/005-004/005-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 06/06/33 Minor storm 01/01/11 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/45 Minor storm 01/01/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05