:Product: 1116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to an M-class flare
observed during the period.  Region 1348 (N20,L088), which rotated
off of the west limb, produced an M1/1f at 15/2235Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity through the period (17 -
19 November).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (17 November).  By day two
and three (18 - 19 November), the field is expected to be at quiet
to unsettled levels with isolated active periods, in response to a
possible glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection observed late
on 14 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 142
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  145/150/150
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  004/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  005/005-007/007-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                06/10/10
Minor storm           02/02/02
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                16/17/17
Minor storm           17/22/22
Major-severe storm    10/13/13