:Product: 1120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Frequent C-class flares
occurred during the period, mostly from Region 1354 (S17E30). Region
1354 showed little change during the period, but exhibited a
moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region
1357 (N17W18) was numbered and showed gradual spot growth. It
produced a single low-level C-class flare during the period. A slow
CME was observed off the northwest limb, first visible in SOHO/LASCO
C2 images at around 20/1448Z. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky
speed of 163 km/s and was likely associated with a filament eruption
from the northwest quadrant. STEREO-A observations suggest the CME
had an Earthward component, but further analysis will be required
due to limited data.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (21 - 23 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1354.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet through the period (21 - 23 November). The
above-mentioned CME is not expected to disturb the field during the
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 140
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov  140/135/135
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 138
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01