:Product: 1123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest flare was a C2
at 23/1328Z from Region 1346 (S15W82).  Region 1356 (N15E28) decayed
slightly in area in its intermediate spots.  Three CMEs were
observed during the summary period.  The first was associated with a
filament eruption in the northwestern quadrant first observed in
SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 22/1957Z.  The second was first seen in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 23/0048Z which was possibly associated with
the same filament eruption.  The third was first seen in SOHO/LASCO
C2 imagery at 23/0924Z which was associated with a high latitude
backside event.  Further analysis of the 22/1957Z CME is ongoing to
determine the possibility of a glancing blow.  The two subsequent
CMEs are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity.  An isolated M-class flare is
possible from Region 1356.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (24 - 26
November).
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 140
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 139
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                04/04/04
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    00/00/00
B.  High Latitudes
Active                14/14/14
Minor storm           12/12/12
Major-severe storm    06/06/06