:Product: 1129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1361 (N18E07) and 1362
(N08E49) each produced the largest flares of the period; C2 flares
at 29/0332Z and 29/0900Z respectively.  A non-geoeffective CME was
seen off the east limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 28/1800Z.  This
CME was likely associated with an eruption near Region 1362 seen in
SDO/AIA 171 imagery beginning at 28/1655Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated minor
storm period observed at middle latitudes.  At approximately
28/2115Z, increases in solar wind speed (380 - 515 km/s) and total
magnetic field (5.8 - 13.5 nT) was observed at the ACE spacecraft. 
A 45 nT Sudden Impulse subsequently was observed in the Boulder
magnetometer at 28/2154Z.  Activity was due to the effects from the
26/0712Z CME.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days 1-2 (30 November - 01
December).  Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (02
December).
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 141
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec  145/145/140
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  008/008-008/007-005/006
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                08/08/05
Minor storm           02/02/01
Major-severe storm    00/00/00
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           16/16/12
Major-severe storm    11/11/05