:Product: 1130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event was a C3
flare that occurred at 30/2028Z from Region 1364 (S17E60).  Growth
was observed in Regions 1361 (N18W06) and 1362 (N06E36).  A coronal
mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at
29/2312Z.  The event was seen in STEREO B COR 2 imagery at 30/0110Z
and determined to be a farside event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field reached quiet to active conditions with minor
and major storm periods observed at high latitudes.  Activity was
attributed to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) at
approximately 30/0810Z followed by a prolonged period of southward
Bz in the interplanetary magnetic field.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (01-03
December).  There is still a possibility of coronal hole high speed
stream effects from the southern polar extension coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 144
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  145/140/135
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  008/008-007/008-006/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                08/08/05
Minor storm           02/02/01
Major-severe storm    00/00/00
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           16/15/13
Major-severe storm    11/08/07