:Product: 1204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1363 (S21E04) continues to grow in sunspot number and
magnetic complexity (beta-gamma-delta). The largest event of the
period was a C4 x-ray event at 04/1615Z from Region 1362 (N08W18).
New region 1367 (S18E36) emerged on the disk early in the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class x-ray events for the next three
days (05-07 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. An isolated period at minor storm levels was observed
at high latitudes, due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(05-07 December).
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 164
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec  165/170/165
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 144
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  006/005-004/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                02/02/02
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    00/00/00
B.  High Latitudes
Active                14/14/14
Minor storm           09/09/09
Major-severe storm    03/03/03