:Product: 1205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest event of the period was a C4 x-ray flare at
05/1518Z from Region 1363 (S21W09). Region 1363 continues to grow in
size and areal coverage but has lost some of its magnetic
complexity (beta-gamma). Three coronal mass ejections were observed
during the period but none appear to have an Earth directed
component.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(06-08 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days
(06-08 December).
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 158
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec  160/160/155
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 144
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  004/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                02/02/02
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    00/00/00
B.  High Latitudes
Active                14/14/14
Minor storm           09/09/09
Major-severe storm    03/03/03