:Product: 1209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1374 (S17E54) produced
a C3 flare at 09/1320Z.  Region 1374 had separation occurring within
the main spot.  Growth was noted in Regions 1375 (N09E52) and 1372
(N08E03).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated active period
at high latitudes occurring during the 09/1200-1500Z period.  Solar
wind speed has remained relatively constant between 300 to 330 km/s
while the total magnetic field has increased from 3 nT to 8 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on Day 1 (10 December).  Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a slight
chance for active periods on Day 2 (11 December) due to effects from
a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  A return to mostly quiet
conditions is expected on day 3 (12 December).
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 144
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec  145/145/140
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 146
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  006/005-007/008-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/13/05
Minor storm           01/03/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           13/15/13
Major-severe storm    08/05/08