:Product: 1210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1375 (N09E39) produced a
C1 x-ray event at 10/0631Z.  The remainder of the disk and limb was
quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity all three
days of the period (11 - 13 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Solar wind
velocities gradually increased through the period from 350 km/s to a
peak of near 500 km/s at about 10/1000Z.  Excursions of southward
interplanetary magnetic field Bz to -10 nT were observed between
01/0200Z - 0600Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods on day one (11 December) due to effects of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  A return to mostly quiet
conditions are expected by days two and three (12 - 13 December) as
effects from the CH HSS wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 140
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 146
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01