:Product: 1211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class
activity observed.  Two filament eruptions were observed during the
period.  A 40 degree long filament, centered near N25E25, was first
observed erupting at about 11/0600Z.  Shortly after, a 10 degree
long filament, centered near N30W17, was first observed lifting off
at about 11/0900Z.  Stereo-A COR2 imagery observed a pair of CMEs
off the NE limb at 11/0754Z and 11/1024Z as a result of the filament
activity.  At this time, neither of these CMEs are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days
of the period (12 - 14 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Solar wind
velocities generally varied between 450 to 500 km/s while the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much
beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels all three days of the period
(12 - 14 December).
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Dec 134
Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        11 Dec 146
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  006/005-006/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01