:Product: 1217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event in the past
24 hours was a C1 flare at 0501Z from Region 1376 (N21W04).  Region
1374 (S18W50) is the largest region on the disk but remains stable
and quiet.  New Regions 1379 (S29W22) and 1380 (S20E70) were
assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (18-20
December).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Dec 120
Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec  120/120/120
90 Day Mean        17 Dec 145
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  002/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  000/000
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05