:Product: 1220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 20 2240 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1376 (N19W46) produced the largest event of the
period,  a C2 event at 20/2036Z. Region 1376 also has shown the most
growth in areal coverage and magnetic complexity. A new region was
numbered today, Region 1384 (N12E61),  as it rotated onto the east
limb. Several CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery but
none appear to have any Earth directed components.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (21 - 23 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days
(21 - 23 December).
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Dec 137
Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  140/140/135
90 Day Mean        20 Dec 145
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                01/01/01
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05