:Product: 1221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1376 (N20W59) produced
the largest flare of the period, a C6/Sn at 20/2250Z.  It was
classified as a Dsi type group with Beta magnetic characteristics. 
Regions 1382 (S14W10) and 1384 (N14E52) produced the majority of the
activity over the past 24 hours, mostly low level C-class flares. 
These regions were classified as Dsc and Cao regions, respectively,
both with Beta magnetic characteristics. There were several CMEs
observed on LASCO C2 imagery, none of which were Earth directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three
days (22-24 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (22-24
December).
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Dec 145
Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec  145/140/140
90 Day Mean        21 Dec 145
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05