:Product: 1224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1386 (S18E64) produced
a C5/Sf at 24/0839Z.  Region 1376 (rotating off the West Limb)
produced a long duration C4 flare at 24/1236Z.  Both were
accompanied by CMEs which are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days
(25-27 December)
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (25-27
December).
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 143
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec  140/140/145
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 144
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  000/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/10