:Product: 1229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1389 (S23E58) produced the largest event of the
period, an M1/1F flare at 29/1350Z. Region 1398 continues to grow
and evolve as it rotates around the east limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (30 December - 01
January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE
spacecraft, have shown an increase from 280 km/s to almost 450 km/s
in the past 24 hours. Signatures in the solar wind indicate the
possible arrivals of the forecasted CMEs, however the intensity was
lower than expected.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (30
December) as the effects of the CMEs wane. Predominantly
quiet levels are expected on day two (31 December). A return to
quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day three (01 January) as a
coronal hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 147
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 144
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  012/008-005/005-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           20/10/15
Major-severe storm    20/05/15