:Product: 1230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Two M-class flares were
observed from Region 1389 (S22E44), an M2/Sf at 29/2151Z and a M1/Sn
at 30/0309Z.  The region ended the period as an Ekc type group with
beta magnetic characteristics.  The remaining regions were stable
and magnetically simple.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels, particularly from Region 1389,
for the next three days (31 December - 02 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  Solar wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft was near 350 km/s.  Bz at ACE was briefly southward
to -8 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for day one (31 December),
increasing to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active
conditions on days two and three (01-02 January).  The increase in
activity is expected with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 141
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 144
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  005/005-008/010-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/15/15