:Product: 1231RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  There were two M-class
x-ray flares from Region 1389 (S23E31), the largest of which was a
M2/Sf at 31/1315Z accompanied by a 150 pfu tenflare.  The second was
a M1/1F at 31/1626Z.  This region was classified as an Ekc type
group with beta-gamma characteristics.  Region 1386 was also active,
producing a C1/Sf flare at 31/1731Z.  The remaining regions were
stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at predominantly low levels, with a chance for occasional M-class
activity from Region 1389.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft was about 350 km/s and Bz was mostly neutral to slightly
negative.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to reach unsettled levels for the next three days (1-3
January) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes
geoeffective.  There is a slight chance for active conditions during
this period.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Dec 133
Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        31 Dec 144
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec  000/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  008/010-007/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/15