:Product: 0101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  One C3/Sf flare was observed
at 01/0734Z from Region 1389 (S22E17).  This region diminished in
spot count and magnetic complexity over the past 24 hours.  The
remaining regions were stable.  The 10cm solar flux was estimated.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days
(01-03 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Hourly averages of solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft were about 360 km/s while Bz was near -2 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mostly quiet with a slight chance for unsettled
conditions for the next three days (02-04 January).
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 130
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan  135/135/135
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 144
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  000/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  006/005-006/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/10