:Product: 0110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1393 (N17W70) produced
the largest flare; a C1 at 10/0153Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Regions 1391 (N12W25) and
1393.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft continues to be slightly elevated at approximately 420 -
460 km/s with the IMF Bz not varying much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (11 January).  On days 2 - 3
(12 - 13 January) quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with a
chance for active periods as a coronal hole high speed stream is
expected to become geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 129
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  130/125/120
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 145
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  004/005-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/20
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/20/20