:Product: 0119RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Jan 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1402 (N29E15) produced an M3/2n flare at 19/1605Z associated with a Type IV radio sweep and a full-halo CME (estimated plane-of-sky speed 1100 km/s). Region 1402 showed minor spot growth in its trailer portion and was classified as an Dko-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region 1401 (N18E13) showed some spot and penumbral development in its intermediate portion and was classified as an Eko-type with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Weak Type II radio sweeps were observed at 19/1252Z (estimated speed 933 km/s) and 19/1933Z (estimated speed 694 km/s). No new regions were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (20 - 22 January) with a chance for M-class activity from Regions 1401 and 1402. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (20 - 22 January) with a chance for active levels on 21 January due to the expected arrival of todays CME. III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jan 157 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 144 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 007/006-009/010-010/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/25/20 Minor storm 01/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/05