:Product: 0203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The disk and
limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (04 - 06 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude active periods due to the waning effects of a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream.  During the period, ACE
satellite observations indicated wind speeds averaged about 425 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field varied
between +/- 5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (04 -
06 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 111
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb  110/110/105
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 141
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  004/005-005/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01