:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with the chance for C-class flares over the next 3 days (16-18
February) from Regions 1416 (S19W55) and 1419 (N29E29).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and minor storm levels at
mid latitudes during the period, while minor to major storm periods
were observed predominately at high latitudes.  The majority of the
elevated activity was observed between 14/2200Z - 15/0600Z and was
most likely caused by the slow arriving CME that was observed on 10
February.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active early on day one (16 February) as
activity begins to wane. Conditions should be mostly quiet on day
two (17 February), before increasing again on day three (18
February), when high speed stream effects are expected from a
favorably positioned, negative polarity coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 105
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  105/110/110
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 133
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  017/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  010/010-006/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/10/20
Minor storm           10/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/10/40
Minor storm           30/01/20
Major-severe storm    10/01/01