:Product: 0221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  There was one C-class flare
during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 21/1148Z from Region 1422
(N15W24).  This region continues to be the largest group on the
disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  ACE data has
shown a steady decline in solar wind speed. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next 36 hours.  An increase to
unsettled levels is expected mid-day on 23 February and continuing
through 24 February due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 103
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 130
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  006/005-007/008-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                01/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/10/20