:Product: 0222RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Feb 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There were two B-class flares during the last 24 hours. The largest of these was a B5 at 1937Z from Region 1422 (N15W38). Region 1422 has shown steady decay during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a chance, however, for an isolated C-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 22/0120Z and was followed by a sudden impulse of 20 nT at 22/0223Z at the Boulder magnetometer. Somewhat later in the day a solar sector boundary crossing was observed (22/0815Z) and was followed by a marked increase in solar wind velocity, indicative of the onset of a high speed stream from a coronal hole. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods during the next 24 hours as effects from the high speed stream persist. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the second and third days (24-25 February). III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Feb 104 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 130 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 007/008-007/005-007/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/05/01 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 35/15/10 Major-severe storm 25/05/05