:Product: 0223RSGA.txt :Issued: 2012 Feb 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1422 (N15W52) showed decay in its trailing spots. A new region appeared on the NE limb and was numbered Region 1423 (N18E70). Two CMEs were observed overnight; the first off the North limb, observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at approximately 23/0148Z and the second beginning at 23/0824Z off the NW limb. The second CME was associated with a filament eruption on the NW limb first seen in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 23/0746Z. None of the CMEs are expected to be geoeffective. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for a C-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft decreased from approximately 530 km/s to 440 km/s while the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions for the forecast period (24 - 26 February). III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Feb 103 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 130 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 004/005-004/005-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05