:Product: 0225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Feb 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Umbral separation was
observed in Region 1422 (N15W78).  Slight decay was observed in the
trailing spots of Region 1424 (N08E52).  The rest of the spot groups
were relatively quiet and stable.  A filament eruption on the SE
limb was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 24/1911Z.  A
corresponding CME off the SE limb was observed in LASCO C2 imagery
beginning at 24/1948Z.  The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (26 -
28 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated
major storm conditions were observed at high latitudes (College)
during the periods ending at 25/1200Z and 25/1500Z.  A greater than
10 MeV proton enhancement began at approximately 25/0330Z and
reached a maximum of 3 pfu at 25/1830Z and continued to be enhanced
by the end of the reporting period.  The event did not reach event
threshold and likely originated from a backside event.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (26 February).  Early on day 2
(27 February), unsettled to active conditions are expected with
minor storm periods possible due to the expected arrival of the 24
February CME.  Conditions are expected to calm to quiet to unsettled
levels with active periods possible by day 3 (28 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 108
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 129
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  004/005-011/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/20
Minor storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/30/25
Minor storm           10/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/10