:Product: 0316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1432 (N14W25) produced
three C1/Sf flares during the period.  This region decreased in area
and spot count, ending the day as a Eso type group with a beta-gamma
configuration.  New Region 1436 (S12E62), a simple Axx type group,
was numbered today.  SDO/AIA 171 imagery showed a filament erupted
from the northwest limb around 18Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for another M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to active levels as
effects from yesterdays CME impact began to wane.  Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft remained high, averaging about 660 km/s
through the period while Bz ranged from +5 to -5 nT.  Data suggests
we may already be under the influence of a coronal hole high speed
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin at unsettled to active levels with minor to major
storm periods at high latitudes for Day 1 (17 Mar).  Days 2 and 3
(18-19 Mar) will see a return to predominantly active levels with
minor storm periods possible as an earth-directed CME from 15 Mar
arrives mid to late on the 18th.  A glancing blow from a 14 Mar CME
is expected to precede the CME by about 12 hours. Major to severe
storm levels will be possible at high latitudes.  The geomagnetic
field should return to active to unsettled levels late on Day 3 (19
Mar) as effects begin to wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     20/15/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 099
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 124
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  024/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  013/015-018/025-015/018
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/30
Minor storm           05/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/25/15