:Product: 0331RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Mar 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A single C1/Sf flare was
observed from Region 1451 (N17E53) at 30/2112Z.  New Region 1451 was
a simple Cro type group with a beta magnetic configuration.  New
Region 1450 (N15E38) was also numbered and also a Cro type group
with beta magnetic characteristics.  The remaining regions were
quiet and magnetically simple.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  An isolated C-class flare is likely with a
slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft ranged from around 450 km/s at the beginning of the period to 350 km/s at the end of the period.  Bz was generally neutral. ACE data suggested a solar sector boundary crossing from negative to positive sector around 31/14Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagentic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (01-03
April).
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Mar 110
Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr  115/115/120
90 Day Mean        31 Mar 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05