:Product: 0403RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N16W04) produced two B4 flare events, one at 02/2220Z
and the other at 03/1228Z.  A weak CME associated with a filament
eruption near N30E11, became visible on LASCO C2 imagery at
02/2348Z.  This CME has a northerly trajectory and is not expected
to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (04-06
April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (04-05 April)
due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective on 04
April, followed by the anticipated arrival of a weak CME associated
with the filament eruption that occurred at 02/0224Z.  Day three (06
April) is expected to return to quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Apr 104
Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr  100/110/115
90 Day Mean        03 Apr 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  007/008-007/008-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/05