:Product: 0407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1452 (N17W23) produced a
C2 x-ray flare and occasional B-class flares. It gradually decayed
to a small B-type group during the period. Region 1450 (N15W59)
gradually decayed to a C-type group during the period and produced
an isolated B-class flare. However, it retained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days 1 - 3 (08 - 10 April) with isolated C-class
flares likely from Region 1452.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with minor to major storm
periods at high latitudes during 07/0900 - 1500Z. This activity was
associated with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz, enhanced IMF
Bt, and increased solar wind speeds.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels until late on day 1 (08
April). A CME passage is expected to commence late on day 1 (from
the partial-halo CME observed on 05 April). Consequently, activity
is expected to increase to unsettled levels beginning late on day 1
and continue until early on day 3 (10 April). There will also be a
chance for active levels on day 2 (09 April) along with a chance for
minor storm levels at high latitudes. Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 as CME effects
subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 099
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 116
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  008/010-013/015-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/10
Minor storm           01/15/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/30/15
Minor storm           10/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05