:Product: 0409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours with two C-class events observed. Region 1450 (N15W90)
produced a C2 event at 0122Z. Around the vicinity of plage Region
1451 (N17W73), a C3 x-ray event was observed at 1244Z. Associated
with this event were both a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated
plane of sky velocity of 767 km/s and a west-limb CME, first visible
in LASCO C2 imagery at 1325Z. Initial analysis indicates the CME,
associated with this event, is non-Earth directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next
three days (10 - 12 April) as Regions 1452 (N18W51) and 1451
continue to weaken and rotate off the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 April)  and at quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (11-12 April), as possible
CME effects and the arrival of elevated solar wind from a favorable
positioned coronal hole arrive.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 095
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr  095/095/090
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 115
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  005/005-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05