:Product: 0414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1455 (N06W34)
produced occasional B-class x-ray flares during the first half of
the period. Region 1455 showed minor spot and penumbral decay during
the period and simplified from a beta-gamma to a beta magnetic
classification. New Regions 1458 (N07E70) and 1459 (S15E79) were
numbered. Neither were remarkable, but analysis was hampered due to
limb proximity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during
the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (15 - 17 April) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. ACE solar
wind observations indicated the continued presence of a coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS) with speeds in the 499 to 614 km/s range.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (15 April) with
a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS effects.
Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during days
2 - 3 (16 - 17 April) as the CH HSS subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 098
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 113
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  013/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  010/010-004/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01