:Product: 0502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Old Region 1468 (N11W96) produced two low level C-class
events before rotating off the west limb. Region 1469 (S23W39)
showed some rapid growth in the trailer spot region and is now
magnetically classified as a beta-gamma. As Region 1469 was growing,
it also produced two C-class x-ray events.  Early in the period, a
full-halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery, but analysis
indicated this was a backsided event. Around 02/1007Z, in SDO
imagery, a large filament was observed lifting off the northwest
limb of the solar disk. LASCO C2 imagery showed a CME around
02/1336Z that is believed to be associated with the filament
eruption. Further analysis is needed to determine if this CME will
become geoeffective. A new region was numbered today, Region 1474
(N14E71), as it rotated onto the northeast limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next
three days (03 - 05 May) as Regions 1469 and 1471 (S21E19) continue
to evolve.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (03 - 05
May).
III.  Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 116
Predicted   03 May-05 May  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        02 May 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05