:Product: 0512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2012 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours.  Region 1476 (N11W18) continues to be the source region for a
majority of the flares, producing nine C-class flares, the largest
of which was a C3 that occurred at 11/2302Z.  This region has shown
some signs of decay, but maintains an Fkc/beta-gamma-delta
configuration.  A full halo CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery at
12/0000Z.  Preliminary analysis indicated the edge of the CME may
skirt the earth, but no major impacts are expected.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with isolated M-class flares for the next
three days (13-15 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours with periods of active levels at high latitudes . The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (13 May),
then fall to quiet levels on day two (14 May).  Day three is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels due to the potential glancing blow from todays CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 130
Predicted   13 May-15 May  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        12 May 113
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  007/008-006/005-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/30
Minor storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05